Friday in the Final Fortnight of..
October 26, 2012 § Leave a comment
FUMBLER politics and politicians in the US of Amerigo Vespucci’s ‘New World’ naming.
FOLLOW the money. The more relevant component I’d say than any number of polls and pollsters who all it now appears suffer something akin to Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle.
And the money – that serious betting buck of which I relate at Intrade and Betfair – said the incumbent was back – no doubt about it – at 80 percent. Pre-debate 1.
Post debate 1 it dumped him out at 60 percent. But a week ago bottomed on Intrade at 54 percent. Rising sharply since, from there back over 60 percent and headed to a likely 70+ according to Nat Silver(guru)
The Betfair parallel, too, says back to 70 percent from 60
Seldom two ways about it, up is up and down is down, each at the expense of the other. Optioning you might say. Though greater certainty can be anticipated. Instance money on the Electoral (College) Vote shakeout rising 3.6 percent for the incumbent since Oct 17, falling this same amount for the wannabe over the period. And this on a substantial rising volume of bets across the country. Figs translate to 291 seats vs 247 seats(270 needed).
Contrast the popular vote ‘take’ presently at 50.2% to 48.8, difference being +0.1 vs -0.1 since 17/10.
In closing, I’d admit to some concern at hearing – was it Gallup, guys? – seemingly rave commentary for Romney in recent weeks along with so-called stats on white male americans opening up major support differences( things that did not exist when John McCain contended last time) and mean, oft-taken as ‘dirty, shirty’ and misleading tactics around Election Day – none of which explained a most chipper incumbent on the Jay Leno Show. (Tks RNZ for the clip)
Yet the above with its IMPROVED CHANCES makes for most sense as down and dirty makes for counter-productive.
Suggesting the cat’s in the bag and… hey, talk about laugh — this arvo a submssion of a cat looking up to a stack of computer servers in which a screwdriver had been inserted. Leg outstretched, pawing the tool, the caption reads: “I’m in ur sirverz, making things betta!!!”
Serving an OOPs! moment, whilst giving nothing away on whose…
Keep on the good work folks, and have a good weekend.